Tempo Advantage and Risk vs. Reward

The current MtG metagame in Standard is undoubtedly fast. The only thing restraining the most powerful decks at the moment are the clunky manabases utilising ETB Tapped lands. A number of archtypes - Boros Bushwacker, Mono-Black Vampires - have taken advantage of this and as a result the metagame has splintered in to the fast vs. the powerful. Surprisingly, unlike most MtG metagame situations, this has not resulted in a viable counter-control strategy.

This is due to the fact that premium card-draw is at an all-time low. Sign-in-Blood, Ior Ruin Expedition, Divination and Mind Spring all suffer from the simple fact of 'not being instants', which allows a clear opening for your opponent to take actions that won't be countered.

One way to take advantage of this situation is to ask, 'how can I improve the tempo of my deck?'.

Before we can go into this, we need to take a look at the card that currently defines the tempo of the metagame. It's a card that provides both tempo advantage and card advantage. It is, of course, Bloodbraid Elf.

Bloodbraid Elf: 2RG, Creature - Elf Beserker, Haste, Cascade, 3/2

Bloodbraid has a unique combination of high-tempo keywords, Haste and Cascade. Haste is a great keyword for producing an aggressive deck. But combined with Cascade, it creates a card that is unparalleled at it's mana cost for providing both a tempo boost and card advantage. What's more, the cascade mechanic provides both card advantage AND a tempo boost, as the card is free to play immediately. As a result Bloodbraid Elf defines the format into three kinds of decks - those that play Bloodbraid Elf (Jund, Naya Lightsaber), and those that try to beat Bloodbraid Elf (everything else).

In order to beat Bloodbraid Elf, you need a deck that has a tempo that will outrace the first playing of the Belf. This can mean one of two things - either your deck aims to defeat your opponent before the Belf is played, or your deck aims to make playing the Belf irrelevant as the outcome of the game is already inevitable.

There are two cards that have high-risk/high-reward tempo boosts associated with them that do not see much play at the moment, largely because the success of the 'reward' is seen as too unlikely. These are Lotus Cobra and
Warren Instigator.

Lotus Cobra

Lotus Cobra was widely hyped when it was first revealed, then as no decks ran it was largely rediculed as being over-hyped. I have a pet theory about Lotus Cobra; the high price and mythic rarity has prevented it from being played in enough decks to see it tested properly, and as a result has not found an appropriate home in a deck yet.

Lotus Cobra is a card with an amazing ability to push tempo advantage to new levels. With the right cards built around it - for instance, fetch lands, Harrow and Garruk - Lotus Cobra is able to punch out 6 or 7 mana spells on Turn 3. This immediately puts your opponent on the back foot, as most aggro decks are unable to adequately defend against such an assault.

However, the risk is currently seen as too high. Cobra is often thought of as a two-mana Duress for removal, and indeed, most opponents that see it would be wise to kill it immediately, much like the old rule of thumb that you always 'bolt your opponent's Bird of Paradise.

However, the wonderfully named 'Magical Christmas Land' deck that Conley Woods took to worlds demonstrates how multiple avenues for tempo advantage can work to your favour. Lotus Cobra, in Wood's deck, acted as nitro in an deck already laden with tempo accelleration. Having a Lotus Cobra around on Turn 3 simply meant that inevitability in that game was almost assured.

In other words, Conley found the right way of mitigating the risks of such a strategy, to much success.

Warren Instigator

I happen to think Warren Instigator is a fine card. It is, if anything, a victim of Jund Charm, Terminate, Lightning Bolt - ie. the most heavily played deck in the format.

Goblins is a fast deck. Faster, perhaps, than Boros Bushwacker. Testing online shows a very, very consistent T4/5 win. Yes, it's a bitch when Warren Instigator is killed once you drop it, but the same risk/reward factor exists as with Lotus Cobra - if it resolves and survives, your likelihood of winning is near certain. Also, there's so little that feels as good as double Seige Gang Commander for free.

Warren Instigator offers no card advantage, but an absolutely amazing tempo advantage. In this format it's something that at least worth taking a second look at. Unlike Lotus Cobra, however, it is difficult to built a 'great deck' that doesn't rely on Warren Instigator.


Ulimately, high risk/high reward strategies will be favoured by those who enjoy the swinginess factor and the high of the amazing win, and ignored by everyone else. But when someone, like Conley starts to cract the tempo challenge, that's when you'll be unhappy for ignoring them for so long as the metagame shifts without you.