Magic Theory: Looking Foward To Power Creep

There's been a bit of hubbub of later of the power creep of creatures and, to a certain extent, the nerfing of counterspells.

Those who have been playing Magic for years understand the ebb and flow of power within the game. The original sets, alpha through to revised, were, in reality, a 'best guess' at how the game would work. It's known the creators never expected decks with four-ofs of any one rare; this assumption proved to be incorrect and the busted cards became known pretty quickly.

And in the beginning, the busted cards were artifacts, instants and sorceries:

* Black Lotus
* Mox Pearl
* Mox Sapphire
* Mox Jet
* Mox Ruby
* Mox Emerald
* Ancestral Recall
* Time Walk
* Timetwister

There were literally zero creatures that could compete with the power level of these spells. Even the lesser instants and sorceries - Dark Ritual, Lightning Bolt, Counterspell, Sinkhole - were highly efficient. Creatures were merely the things you fit around successfully resolving your Recalls and Time Walks.

Yes, there were some lights in the shadow; certainly Savannah Lions set the benchmark for what W would buy you, Ball Lightning in 4th Ed is still a great card today, and Lord of Atlantis is the most effectively costs Lord to date, but overwhelmingly the creatures of that era would not see play today.

When did this begin to change? Erhnam Djinn in Chronicles and Juzam Djinn in Arabian Nights pushed back against Serra Angel in terms of effeciency. But the still could not compete with the power levels of Stasis, Fastbond, Balance, Demonic Tutor, and the many, many other instants, sorceries and enchantments that would steal their thunder for years.

So when did it really start to change? Probably not with the printing of Morphling in Urza's Saga, which should be seen as a fantastic abberation in a set full of otherwise boring creatures. Probably not Goblin Welder in Urza's Legacy, which, while powerful, is really more a tutoring sorcery than a creature. A better guess might be Urza's Destiny, which gave us the 5/5 Phyrexian Negator for 2B and the 4/4 Masticore with a bunch of great abilities for 4.

But the rise of creatures was really precipitated by the printing of two tribes; Slivers in Tempest block and exceedingly good Goblins in Onslaught block. These two tribes allowed creatures to 'get back in the game', so to speak. As tribes they were powerful and synergistic. But there's one thing they weren't; efficient. As an army, Goblins and Slivers were hyper-powerful, but by themselves they were just as anemic as their older creature cousins. This same efficiency could be seen in Mirrodin block; by themselves the Affinity and Modular creatures were pretty pathetic (7 mana for a 4/4? no thanks!). But as a group they were unstoppable.

It wasn't really until Ravnica that the modern standards for power/toughness efficiency in creatures was set. Ravnica, of couse, was the home of the 'Hunted' cycle: 1UU 4/6 unblockable creature, BB for a 7/7 trampler, 2GG for a 8/4 regenerator, 3RR for a flying, hasty 6/6. Of course, each of these creatures had considerable downsides, in that they gave your opponent permanents of their own, but they certainly set a new benchmark for power/toughness efficiency.

This new realm of efficiency was reinforced by the Gold creatures Ravnica introduced. Watchwolf became the watchword for mana efficiency, the WG 3/3 vanilla creature. Guildpact gave Giant Solifuge, a hasty, trampling, shrouded 4/1 for 2R/G R/G. Rumbling Slum was fantastic at 1RGG for a 5/5 that pinged your opponent - you sure didn't care about it pinging yourself. And if you were prepared to lose your entire board position, then 3UU for a 8/8 flyer didn't seem so bad at all.

Timespiral block reinforced this, bringing with it the suspend mechanic, allowing people to spend R to cast a 9/7 or 2U to cast an unblockable 6/6. Spending 1R on a Vanishing 3/3 that was guaranteed to do at least 2 damage was far more impressive than Ravnica's 3/3 that hung around.

And then we got Future Sight, which certainly lived up to its promise, allowing us to glimpse just how efficent creatures would become. The 5/5 flyer for BB in Tombstalker; the 0 mana 1/1 flyer in Nacromoeba, the 3 5/5 in Gathan Raiders.

And then there was Tarmogoyf. The 1G (possible) 8/9 with no drawback.

With Lorwyn promised to be a creature-focus block with a strong tribal theme, the future for creatures only looked better. Oona's Prowler was a 3/1 flyer for 1B. Mulldrifter was Divination on a 2/2 flyer. And then their were the blue faeries; Mistbind Clique, Scion of Oona, Spellstutter Sprite, Sower of Temptation, Vendilion clique. Even the aggressively costed Kithkin and Merfolk couldn't keep up. Doran, a BGW 'effective' 5/5 made others look tiny, but wasn't much use one Sowered away.

By this time huge, efficient creatures were common. A 2RR 7/7 and 8/8? Sure. No-one even played them, percieving the downside too harsh. A 1G 4/3 (Talara's Battalion)? Not even worth bothering about when your 2/2 'vigilant' Gs (Nettle Sentinel) were doing the job for you, or just helping you combo off.

So there was no need to be surprised when the next block, Alara, featured a 3/3 for G in Wild Nacatl, or a 5/4 for WGR in Wooly Thoctar. Or two 4/4 flyers for 3BRG in Broodmate Dragon. Or a 4/4 for BG in Putrid Leech. And even less surprise when a 5/5 Flying, First Striking, Lifelinking Angel for 3WW turned up in M10, or a 6/6 Flying Trampling Demon for 2BB turned up in Zendikar.

The important thing to note is; are any of these as powerful as a Black Lotus? A Time Walk? An Ancestral Recall? Even a Sinkhole? Probably not. If those cards were in Standard you'd build your deck around them in a second.

Just how good does a creature have to get before you'd run one over Time Walk? I don't know, but it would have to be pretty close to Tarmogoyf for a single colored mana. Can we expect something like that in the future? Perhaps.

But what's great about the power creep of creatures is that it clearly gives Wizard's some comfort in returning some of the older, more powerful spells to us. Sure, we've only seen Lightning Bolt and Swords to Ploughshares to date, but how far away can Counterspell or Stone Rain be? If the only way to survive an onslaught of hyper-efficient creatures is through mana denial, spell denial, or highly efficent removal, then it's going to get printed again.

The only question now is when - and how good will creatures be when they do?

Labels: analysis, magic, theory

Predicting M11

Everyone loves predictions, right? Mainly because they make a fool of the ones making them. I was taught never to make a prediction, lest I become one of those fools.

However, sometimes it's worth putting your balls on the line a little, even if only to see how well you're on your game.

Over the next few months all eyes will be on Worldwake. But with M11 coming out later this year, now's the time to put a stake in the ground (preferably through the heart of a sparkly vampire) and make some predictions as to what will be in and what will be out of M11.

So here's my prediction for what Rares and Mythic Rares will be in and out of M11, based on the totally unsubstantiated notion that 50% of current cards will stay, and 50% will go.

OUT	IN
Mythic Rares
Bogardan Hellkite Darksteel Colossus Platinum Angel Protean Hydra Sphinx Ambassador Time Warp Xathrid Demon	Ajani Goldmane Baneslayer Angel Chandra Nalaar Garruk Wildspeaker Jace Beleren Liliana Vess Master of the Wild Hunt Vampire Nocturnus
Rares
Captain of the Watch Capricious Efreet Cemetery Reaper Coat of Arms Djinn of Wishes Elvish Piper Gargoyle Castle Guardian Seraph Haunting Echoes Hive Mind Indestructibility Kalonian Behemoth Lightwielder Paladin Lurking Predators Magma Phoenix Magebane Armor Mesa Enchantress Might of Oaks Mirror of Fate Planar Cleansing Polymorph Royal Assassin Sanguine Bond Shivan Dragon Silence Traumatize Warp World	Ant Queen Ball Lightning Birds of Paradise Clone Elvish Archdruid Earthquake Great Sable Stag Goblin Chieftain Honor of the Pure Howling Mine Hypnotic Specter Manabarbs Merfolk Sovereign Mind Shatter Mind Spring Nightmare Open the Vaults Pithing Needle Siege-Gang Commander Twincast Underworld Dreams Dragonskull Summit Drowned Catacomb Glacial Fortress Rootbound Crag Sunpetal Grove

Points of note:

* I think the new Rare lands are a lock until at least M12. WotC have declared them the new pain lands, and I believe they're here to stay.
* With the Planeswalkers taking up a full five of seven/eight mythic slots to stay, it means either seven or eight of the remaining ten mythics will cycle. I think this is a good thing, with WotC mixing it up with iconic cards from the past (eg. Time Warp) and new mythics (eg. Master of the Wild Hunt). As such I think those iconic cards will likely only get a single season before cycling away again.
* Yes, I think Baneslayer Angel will stay. I think WoTC have no desire to garner the bad will of the people most invested in the game by cycling the Mythic Beast too soon.
* I am unsure if this is really a list of what I think will be in M11, or what I'd like to see in M11. Though they may well be one and the same. After all, why would WotC keep around the cards I don't like?

Labels: analysis, m11, predictions, speculation

Magic As A Game of Negotiations

Yesterday I said the following:

"Magic is, in a sense, a game of negotiation, where resources are traded depending on the skill of each of the players."

And I thought I'd elaborate on that a little today.

In Magic both players start with a set of resources built under a particular set of rules. Throughout the game resources are built up, lost, re-gained, until a win condition is met (ie. a life total is zero, a card cannot be drawn, a 'I win' card is played).

The resource trading process is, in a way, a series of negotiations, where resources are won or lost on the back of your trading position. For instance, you may choose to trade your Terminate for your opponent's Baneslayer Angel. Your opponent, as part of that negotiating process, may want to change the terms of that negotiation and play a Flashfreeze in response, and so-forth.

Unlike negotations in the real world, where most often the wisest thing to do is seek the "win-win" outcome where both parties walk away happy with the contract, the Magic the goal is to seek the "win-lose" negotiation, where one party comes out definitively worse.

However, in order to be successful in any negotiation you need to prepare properly. In order to do this you need to understand what 'currency' you have.

The concept of 'currency' in negotiation theory is, simply put, all the things you have to trade away. In Magic these are known as resources. However, there is a scale of resources not immediately apparent from the game rules. Here's a list of resource tiers you may find interesting:

Tier 1: Starting Resources

* Life total
* Cards in Hand
* Cards in Library
* Cards outside of game

Tier 2: Battlefield Resources

* Permanents in play
* Creatures in play
* Basic land types in play
* Enchantments in play
* Artifacts in play (Affinity)
* Tokens in play

Tier 3: Gameplay Resources

* Creature types in play (Tribal)
* Mana symbols in play (Chroma)
* Mana symbols in graveyard (Chroma)
* Mana symbols in hand (Chroma)
* Card types in graveyard (Lhurgoyf)
* Lands in graveyard (Lhurgoyf)
* Nonbasic lands in graveyard (Lhurgoyf)
* Instants in graveyard (Lhurgoyf)
* Sorceries in graveyard (Lhurgoyf)
* Creatures in graveyard (Lhurgoyf)
* Enchantments in graveyard (Lhurgoyf)
* Power of creatures in play
* Toughness of creatures in play
* Mana Generators in play
* Counters on permanents in play
* Cards in Graveyard (Threshold, Dredge)
* Top card of your deck

Tier 4: Meta Resources

* Mulligans
* Time / Turns left
* Deck 'power'
* Deck tempo
* Deck consistency
* Deck threat diversity
* Deck threat response
* Deck card interactions
* Knowledge of own deck
* Knowledge of opponent’s deck
* Knowledge of opponent’s hand
* Knowledge of top card of opponent’s deck
* Knowledge of top card of your deck

Yesterday's story of cracking a Terramorphic Expanse to fetch a Swamp on Turn 1 when I was playing a White/Blue deck, was an example of trading a Meta Resource (Knowledge of own deck) in order to mislead my opponent in future negotiations.

Another example from the same draft was in a game where I had led with a Turn 1 Elite Vanguard, and my opponent had responded with a Turn 2 Runeclaw Bear. Knowing that my deck would do better the more time (a Meta Resource) it had to negotiate, I was happy to swing into the bear with my Elite Vanguard. My opponent had the opportunity to either agree to a trade or reject a trade. He agreed, we traded creatures, and the negotiation went better for me: I came out one mana spent ahead and was given more time to find my Baneslayer Angel.

Yesterday's post also included an example where I was happy to trade card after card so long as I could maintain a positive trade advantage in terms of time, knowing that time was fast becoming my opponent's most valuable resource. My opponent did not realise this series of negotiations was going on until far too late, by which time he could not extract himself from a negative trading position and lost the match.

Understanding all the resources available to you, how to access them, how and when to maximise your resource expenditure, and how to ensure a series of 'win-lose' negotiations throughout the game is critical to winning in Magic. Over the next few weeks I'll explore these topics in terms of deckbuilding, gameplay and negotiation strategy. I'd also be very interested in your feedback in regards to this, especially around and resources that I may have missed, or holes in the philosophical approach. Feel free to comment, hit me up on wrongwaygoback@yahoo.com or on Twitter.

Labels: analysis, magic, theory

Thinking Originally vs Playing by Rote

There are lot of articles floating around at the moment that teach you Magic playstyle 'best practice'. These are the types of tips such as "crack your Terramorphic Expanse at the end of your opponents turn", "make sure to crack your fetchland to thin your deck", "never Lightning Bolt your opponent in your own main phase turn 1", "always wait to the last possible moment to do something".

These tips - which are usually quite servicable play styles - help you to learn how to play by rote.

Here's the funny thing: playing by rote is a terrible way to play.

For example, let's examine our pieces of 'best practice' above.

1. 'Crack your fetchland at the end of your opponent's turn".

In a Standard environment, where Stifle does not see play, there is no possible way of preventing the activation. Therefre the theory here is that by waiting you deny your opponent information until the past possible moment.

Here are two reasons why you may like to crack that Terramorphic expanse as soon as you get it.

(a) You wish to give your opponent misleading information.
(b) You wish to give your opponent the impression you don't know how to play 'well'.

In terms of (a), here's a real-world example. In a recent draft I was playing a WUb deck. My deck had a single Swamp with which to splash Doom Blade. My starting hand was Plains, Island, Terramorphic Expanse, Stormfront Pegasus, Palace Guard, Pacifism, Horned Turtle. With no turn-one play, the Terramorphic Expanse is exactly the right play - but what to fetch? With a Plains and and Island in hand, the only missing colour was a Swamp. Now I was running a number of double-white costed cards, but I knew I was going to fetch the Swamp. This would give my opponent I was playing a completely different build to what I was actually running. Yes, I would reveal White on turn 2, but the information about blue would certainly wait until turn 3 or 4. My player would firstly think I was running Black, then think I was running BW, and would not know I was really WU until much later.

In terms of (b), I don't mind giving my opponent the impression I play worse than I really do. If that makes him play a little looser, whether by overcommitting resources, or running his best creatures into removal unnessarily, that's fine by me. And if it puts my opponent on tilt when this 'bad player' beats them in game 1, thereby making game 2 an easier game to win, that's fine by me as well.

2. Make sure to crack your fetchland to thin your deck

The advice here is that my cracking your fetchland, you can thin your deck and "draw more gas" (a terrible turn of phrase, if you ask me). The necessary counterexample is when you actually want to draw more land.

Every time you crack a fetchland you reduce the chance you'll draw another land. That's all fine and good unless you want to be drawing into lands.

For instance, I play a semi-casual deck (all my decks are only ever 'semi'-casual, coz I want to win, goddamnit) called 'Team Grixis'. Team Grixis has two issues; big spells and complicated mana costs. Often I run a couple of fetches out in the first two turns, but I don't crack them. This way I increase my chances of drawing into lands. Once I have then lands I need, then I crack the fetches. I only crack a fetch when I need to cast something with urgency, or to enable the drawing of more spells and find land that way.

3. Never Lightning Bolt your opponent in your own main phase turn 1 (wait until the end of their turn)

Ah, how we mock the "T1, Mountain, Lightning Bolt - go" play. Until you witness the following scenario.

P1: Mountain, go.
P2: Island. At EOT, P1 plays Lightning Bolt and P2 responds with Spell Pierce.

Now, you might argue that P1 now can get two mana open and play a better spell without worrying about P2 countering it. Sure, if that's P1's plan. But maybe it's not. Maybe P1 only has a three drop after that. Maybe P1 only intended on playing another Lightning Bolt, and intends to use that on his opponent's next End Step anyway. Whatever the reason, P1 is able to make a decision that gets a very early, uncounterable, three-damage in. That 3 damage may end up deciding the game.

4. Always wait to the last possible moment to do something

Again, another trope repeated endlessly but not necessarily correct.

For instance, your opponent is playing UW and gets down a Baneslayer Angel with no further mana open; do you wait until your opponent untaps and declares attackers before you Terminate it? Your UW tapped out last turn; do you wait until the end of their next turn to Flash in your Teferi, just because it's the last possible moment you can do so?

Immediacy counts for a lot in Magic, as does the freedom to perform an action unmolested. A good player may wait until the last possible moment, but a great player will sieze the opportunities presented.


The UWr draft I was playing was on Magic Online. Although my deck was fine - Baneslayer Angel is not a bad card, apparently - I was having a lot of trouble against my Round 2 opponent. The first game went long - about 30 minutes - due to my opponents RUg deck with an endless supply of removal and a Merfolk Looter I could do little about (Pacifism won't help me there). Eventually my opponent won Game 1, and we moved onto Game 2. Slowly the board built up, me with Baneslayer, him with Entangling Vines, me with Captain of the Watch, him with Magma Phoenix. We were totally stalemated, but without Baneslayer I was destined to lose. That's when I noticed the time. I still had about 13 minutes on my clock, while my opponent only had 7. I decided that my win condition lay not on the board, but on my opponent running out of time. This is not a win strategy available in paper Magic. It was also clearly not a strategy my opponent had picked up on.

I decided to play well enough to stall, but not well enough to win or take board control - anything to stop my opponent conceding and moving onto game 3. This included some ludicrously bad plays like Unsummoning my Captain of the Watch rather than the Baneslayer to keep the board stalled. But replaying the Captain would buy me 4 life of a Soul Warden, as opposed to making my opponent concede. As the minutes ticked down I got closer and closer to winning the match - online, the player who runs out of time loses not just the game, but the entire match.

My opponent hit the four minute mark and played his second combo piece; Prodigal Pyromancer with Gorgon Flail on the board. I had held back a Doom Blade the entire time. That was too much, and was forced to Doom Blade it, and my opponent finally conceded, but it was too little to late.

With three minutes left on his clock, and 8 on mine, he need to kill me fast. I kept a perfect control hand - two plains, an island, a Horned Turtle, a Pacifism, a Solemn Offering and a Holy Strength. My opponent apparently had the god hand. T2 Gorgon Flail. T3 Prodigal Pyromancer. T4 Borderland Ranger. T5 Goblin Artillery. And a Seismic Strike in there somewhere. However, between my Solemn Offering on his Gorgon Flail, a Horned Turtle with a Holy Strength on it, and a timely Negate for his Seismic Strike, I accomplished what I needed and ran my opponent out of time. It wasn't a winning hand for beating my opponent in the red zone, but it was for beating my opponent with the clock.


Magic is, in a sense, a game of negotiation, where resources are traded depending on the skill of each of the players. Spells are one of these resources, but so is information. You can use the judicious trading of information to both inform or mislead your opponent. You can use it to lead your opponent down a path from which they cannot recover. But you cannot do this if you play as your opponent expects you to, by rote, predictibly. Sometimes the best thing you can do is to unlearn your play habits and start to think about why you play the way you play, and how you might play differently.

Labels: analysis, magic, strategy

Possible Mirrodin Cards in M11 and Zendikar Block

M10 will be rolling out soon enough and M11 rolling in. By including Fetchlands in Zendikar, WotC seems to be signalling they want a consistent cardpool in Extended. However, a large chunk of highly playable cards in Extended will disappear as Mirrodin block rotates out of extended.

As such here's an analysis of played cards and what we may be likely to see in M11 or Worldwake/Rise of the Eldrazi.

Definite NOs

• Banned/Restricted Cards (Skullclamp, Disciple of the Vault, Cranial Plating, Aether Vial): Three of these cards are already banned in Extended, and Cranial Plating has been banned in other formats. These are all far too overpowered to be allowed in the current Standard environment.
  
• Affinity Cards (primarly Thoughtcast, Myr Enforcer, Frogmite, Spire Golem): WotC made the mistake of affinity once, and aren't likely to do so again. Affinity, we will miss you.
  

Likely NOs

• Pulse Cycle (Pulse of the Fields, Pulse of the Grid, Pulse of the Dross, Pulse of the Forge, Pulse of the Tangle): These cheap, repeatable cards are so incredibly broken with the Cascade mechanic that I can't see them getting into the Standard environment at the moment.


• Beacon Cycle (Beaon of Immortality, Beacon of Tomorrows, Beacon of Unrest, Beacon of Destruction, Beacon of Creation): The only card in the set that sees regular play is Beacon of Immortality. Beacon of Tomorrows has been somewhat overtaken by Time Warp being reprinted in M10, and the rest are merely mediocre cards. Unlikely to see reprinting any time soon.


• Scry Cards (Serum Visions, Magma Jet, Condescend): Although Scry is an interesting mechanic, I'm not sure WotC believe it should be in the core set. It's a difficult mechanic to explain to a layperson, so I think it's unlikely that these cards will be reprinted.


• Imprint Cards (primarily Chrome Mox, Duplicant, Isochron Scepter): I can't see these getting up at the moment, largely due to the keyword. But in regards to Chrome Mox, here's quick test - can you think of a single mana accelerant artifact costing 2 mana or less in Standard at the moment? That should say everything you need to know about Chrome Mox.


• Sword of Fire and Ice/Sword of Light and Shadow: Great cards, probably too powerful to see play in Standard. WotC seem to have been nerfing equipment of late (see Grappling Hook and Bone Saw for some real do-nothing cards), and I see no reason why that trend won't continue.


• Tooth and Nail: If it weren't for the Entwine mechanic, I think it might stand a chance. But it's unlikely that WotC will reprint Entwine, and therefore Tooth and Nail is likely to be out of Extended for a while.


• Rude Awakening: Again, if it weren't for the Entwine keyword, I would think Rude Awakening would be perfrect for Zendikar block. However I believe it's probably more likely out than in.


• Engineered Explosives: Although it's a great card, and not overpowered, it has one little feature that will see it not reprinted - the keyword Sunburst. Again, another complicated mechanic that's unlikely to be reprinted.


• Thirst for Knowledge: Currently restricted in some formats, WotC have really beaten down on the card drawing of late. I doubt this one will see another reprint.


• Seething Song: Reprinting this in M11 wouldn't cause any problems, but wouldn't it be just the perfect flavour for Worldwake? Fire! Lava! Eruptions! However, as it was just reprinted in 9ED, it's unlikely to reprinted again, as it's safely in the Exteded pool regardless.


• Darksteel Colossus & Platinum Angel: They've just been reprinted, so I think they'll fall out of M11.


• Troll Ascetic: I think that Cudgel Troll being printed for the first time in M10 put the nail in Troll Ascetic's coffin for a while. Turns out that Troll Ascetic doesn't have shroud for other trolls.


• Serum Powder: A janky kinda card that sees play in particular combo decks, I simply see no reason to bring it back.


• Vedalken Shackles: Although I'd love to see it back, it's all wrong in the flavour of the moment. I don't think we'll see it again for a while.


• Lightning Greaves: Although it's not overpowered, and could happily see play, I just don't think it will be reprinted this soon. Matches the 'adventuring' flavour of Zendikar block though, so if it does appear, it will be in block, rather than core.


• Memnarch: Memnarch loses for one reason - he was integral to the flavour of Mirrodin at the time. As such I don't think we'll see him making a return.


• Trinisphere: WotC have publically state they want players to 'have fun', and that 'having fun' is not equal to 'sitting around not doing anything because of cards like Trinisphere'. Apparently, dying in the first six turns of the game to a bums rush of geopedes is fun. As such, no Trinisphere for you.


• March of the Machines: In Core set it would be a janky card like Hive Mind. In Block it would probably be amazingly overpowered. With no balance, no reprinting.


• Crucible of Worlds: A land set with land recursion would be awesome. But it would be massively overpowered in block with Fetchlands, and as it saw reprinting in 10E, it's unlikely to find it's way into Standard any time soon.

Possible M11

• Echoing Cycle (Echoing Calm, Echoing Truth, Echoing Decay, Echoing Ruin, Echoing Courage): The cycle isn't overpowered, and introducing the concept of cylces into the Core set would be great of newcomers. It also means Extended keeps some answers for some really obvious problems around.


• Death Cloud: Death Cloud would be a great Mythic for M11. It's a huge effect that keeps an entire archtype alive in Extended. I think we'll see it stick around.


• Icy Manipulator: It's been a staple of the core set for years, and the current rampant run of creatures and Jund means control options like this a desperately needed. I think we'll see it again in M11.


• Eternal Witness: It's a great card. I'm not sure how broken it would be with Cascade in Standard, but I think it could happily be reprinted in M11 to give Green a way to race against Gravedigger.


• Chalice of the Void: I think this would be great to see reprinted as a Mythic Rare in M11. It's the type of tool control badly needs to retain in Extended, and could also provide a thorn in the side of Jund. There's really no reason not to reprint it either, so here's hoping WotC get it into M11.


• Loxodon Warhammer: With Behemoth Sledge in Standard, and Warhammer reprinted in 10E already, I can't see a reason to reprint this anytime soon.


• Staff of Domination: Another Mythic Rare candidate for M11, the printing of Obelix of Alara shows WotC aren't afraid to stick multiple effects on a splashy artifact like this one. I wouldn't be surprised to see it reprinted in M11.


• Mindslaver: Probably the most controvertial pick of this list, but I think Mindslaver would also make a fantastic Mythic Rare in M11. My fingers are crossed, but I'm not holding my breath.


• Viridian Shaman: It's a good card for Limited, and really deserves to see play again. The only thing holding it back is probably Kor Sanctifiers.

Possible Zendikar Block

• The Artifact Lands: I think the current "land cycle" would be a great time to bring these cards back, although I do think it's rather unlikely. If the Eldrazi prove to be artifact creatures, perhaps we'll see them in Rise.


• Modular Cards (Arcbound Ravager. Arcbound Worker): Again, if Eldrazi is a artifact themed set (and that's a BIG 'if'), I don't think these cards are too broken to see play again. +1/+1 counters are pretty popular at the moment, and without damage on the stack, Ravager's effects aren't too overpowered to see play in Standard. After all, no-one plays Scarland Thrinax, and he's very similar in the current environment.


• Molten Rain: I think this is a very hot card for reprinting. Zendikar is a land-themed set, and one thing a set like that needs is specific, on-theme removal. That would be Molten Rain. I'd be very surprised not to see it reprinted, and if it isn't, WotC will have clearly signalled their intention to not make land descruction viable again in Standard for a very long time to come.


• Blinkmoth Nexus: It's a great little card, hardly overpowered, and the only thing that will keep it out of Zendikar is flavour.


• Stalking Stones: Another excellent card, especially for Worldwake. It may have been overtaken by the new dual-colour man-lands, however, and will likely not see reprinting for that reason.


• Goblin Charblecher: There are two things about this card that make me think it would be great to see in Zendikar block - the Goblin theme, and the land theme. This card is perfect for reprinting in the set, and I think will add an archtype back into standard that's sorely missing - Combo.


• Shrapnel Blast + Atog: These two go hand in hand, really, again proving viable only if Rise is an artifact based set. However, at the moment there are few artifacts worth saccing for effect, so I'd think currently more likely to be out than in.


• Trinket Mage: I'd love to see it reprinted, especially if Rise proves to be an artifact-based set. However, there is so little worth fetching with the mage in Standard at the moment that there would have to be a number of decent cards printed before he'd become playable in Standard.


• Sundering Titan: What does a 'land matters' block need but a land descruction finisher? Sundering Titan fits this bill perfectly. I think an almost shoe-in if Rise proves to be an artifact based set, because it's the perfect overlap of 'Land Matters' and 'Artifacts Matter'.


• Grinding Station: WotC have been pushing the mill deck heavily lately, so I think there's a fair chance that Grinding Station may see play. Would be very interesting in a Time-Sieve/Turbo Fog variation.


• Solemn Simulacrum: Although I actually doubt it'll see play in Standard again, it's the perfect landfall enabler. Perhaps a surprise inclusion?

So there you have it. Mirrodin block rotating certainly puts a lot of archtypes in danger - Deathcloud, Affinity, Mindslaver Tron, Charbelcher Combo. It'll be interesting to see if they go the way of the dodo, or if WotC makes an effort to protect some of them through M11 and Zendikar block.

Labels: analysis, m11, magic, mirrodin, zendikar

Goblins, Goblins, Goblins

Today I'm going to talk a little about three goblin decks kicking around at the moment.

Here's the first, which went 4-0 in a recent MtGO daily event.

dbuchan's Goblins (4-0)
Constructed Standard Event #749420 on 12/06/2009 in Daily Events

4 Ball Lightning
4 Goblin Bushwhacker
4 Goblin Chieftain
4 Goblin Guide
4 Siege-Gang Commander
4 Warren Instigator

4 Burst Lightning
4 Elemental Appeal
4 Lightning Bolt

3 Arid Mesa
12 Mountain
3 Scalding Tarn
3 Teetering Peaks
3 Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle

Sideboard

4 Goblin Ruinblaster
4 Goblin Shortcutter
3 Inferno Trap
1 Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle
3 Volcanic Fallout

Points of interest:
* No less than 8 "elementals" in the mainboard. Although this minimised the impact of the Warren Instigator, it gives the deck some reach that other goblin decks don't have.
* Shortcutters in the sidebard. Personally, I really like Shortcutters, as a Shortcutter plus a Lightning Bolt almost guarantees a Warren Instigator hit. However, with 8 less goblin cards, Instigator is a little less important in this deck.
* 3 Valakut mainboard and one in the sideboard. I've been playing Goblins for a while with two Valakut mainboard, but have never dealt anyone damage with them - the game simply has never gone on long enough.
* 3 Volcanic Fallout sideboard. These are very punishing vs. Boros and help one of your worst matchups - but holding back your dudes is important.
* 3 Inferno Traps for those playing Turbo Fog.

I wonder if a Lavaball trap might not also get the job done against Jund. Regardless, a great deck and one to watch.

Here's a second Standard deck:

Tim's Green Goblins
4th Place - Magic Game Day (Standard) - Georgia - Carrollton

4 Goblin Bushwhacker
4 Goblin Chieftain
4 Goblin Guide
4 Goblin Razerunners
4 Siege-Gang Commander
4 Warren Instigator
2 Intimidation Bolt
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Path to Exile
2 Sarkhan Vol
2 Volcanic Fallout

4 Arid Mesa
9 Mountain
2 Plains
4 Rootbound Crag
3 Scalding Tarn

Sideboard

2 Day of Judgment
3 Goblin Ruinblaster
3 Pithing Needle
2 Qasali Pridemage
3 Vines of Vastwood
2 Volcanic Fallout

Tim takes the approach of splashing for Green and White, making it really Naya Goblins. Points of interest:
* 2 Sarkhan Vol maindeck. People hate on Sarkhan, but he really shines in this deck, able to pump tokens, remove a blocker for Instigator, or just win games long term.
* Goblin Razerunners. Very difficult to play around, but not a lot of synergy with Siege-Gang Commander
* 4 Path to Exile. This is the type of deck that doesn't care how many lands your opponent has, because they're already dead. Path seems like another good way of pushing an Instigator through.
* 3 Vines of Vastwood. Vines is an excellent "counterspell" vs. removal to protect your Siege Gang Commanders and Warren Instigators.
* 2 Qasali Pridemage. Very interesting choice, but I would of guessed difficult to play.
* 3 Pithing Needle. Needle deals with so much, but shutting down Planeswalkers would be my best guess at to it's main calling.

I think either splashing Red, White or Black are all doable with Goblins at the moment, but splashing two colours seems a little dangerous. Maybe a Boros Goblins deck is the way to go

And finally, here's a MtGO Classic goblins deck:

Chaos Goblins
MtGO Classic Deck

4 Goblin Warchief
4 Goblin Matron
1 Tin Street Hooligan
1 Goblin Chieftain
4 Gempalm Incinerator
4 Goblin Ringleader
1 Goblin Sharpshooter
4 Goblin Piledriver
4 Goblin Guide
4 Goblin Lackey
4 Æther Vial
2 Pithing Needle

4 Wasteland
5 Mountain
2 Scalding Tarn
2 Stomping Ground
1 Strip Mine
4 Wooded Foothills
1 Arid Mesa
4 Bloodstained Mire

Sideboard

1 Krosan Grip
1 Relic of Progenitus
2 Ravenous Trap
2 Tormod's Crypt
3 Seal of Primordium
4 Chalice of the Void
2 Pyrokinesis

Chaos has done a fair bit of testing with this build. He tried Instigator, but found it simply wasn't fast enough! Some notes:
* Goblin Guide is a tentative card. Mogg Fanatic may actually be better in the slot, as it can also shut down Bridge From Below maindeck.
* Pithing Needles maindeck are superstars and are a must keep.
* Tin Street Hooligan is tutorable via Matron and is a silver bullet vs. certain decks.
* The same goes for Sharpshooter vs. decks like Elves!
* The sideboard has some heavy play against Engineered Plague with 3 Seal of Primordium and a Krosan Grip.
* Chalice is a brilliant choice with Æther Vial and can shut your opponent down beautifully.

Goblins are alive and well in both Standard and Classic. Although many will always see them as a Teir 1.5 deck, the moment you forget about the Red Menace, is the moment they secretly have you by the short and curlies.

Labels: analysis, classic, deckbuilding, goblins, magic, mtgo, standard

Bloodchief Ascension Revisited: Examining the Bloodchief Ascension Deck

I still genuinely believe that Bloodchief Ascension is a card that will help define the new Standard environment. However, it hasn't quite found a home in a deck yet.

I guess there are two ways to approach the [B] Enchantment - Aggro or Control.
Aggro seeks to get Bloodchief Ascension online as quickly as possible by consitently throwing either dudes or burn at your opponent.
Control seeks to get Bloodchief Ascension online slowly and carefully, as once it's online then you have inevitably behind you.

I've put together a list of card that have excellent synergy with Bloodchief Ascension. They are listed, with commentary, below.

CREATURES

BLACK

* Vampire Lacerator [B][Aggro]: Probably the perfect Turn 1 drop for the Aggro BA deck. Yes, you will hurt from the downside of the card, but once BA comes online that should all turn around in your favour.
* Dredgescape Zombie [1B]: It's not great, but it's not terrible. The unearth is what's really attractive, being able to push through damage is pretty important in the Aggro version of the deck. However, Dredgecape Zombie has never been good enough to go mainstream, and it's unlikely that we'll use him.
* Surrakar Marauder [1B][Aggro]: Another interesting 2 drop, mainly because of the situational unblockability. However, with all the black two-drops running around, including Vampire decks and Putrid Leech, it's unlikely he'll make the grade.
* Bloodghast [BB][Aggro/Control]: Bloodghast seems the best card so far. Your opponent will unlikely want to trade and therefore Bloodghast will likely get the counters happening. In a control deck you can play multiple sweepers and bring this guy back with no card loss. Great with Earthquake. Seems an auto-include.
* Gatekeeper of Malakar [BB][Aggro/Control]: Great in both control and aggro. Removal + Dude = Awesome. Should be treated as a 3-drop.
Black Knight [BB][Aggro/Control]: Far more situational, and unlikely to make the cut. Probably a great sideboard card against mono-white Soldiers and Boros.
* Hypnotic Specter [1BB][Control]: Okay, you're not gonna get this guy on Turn 1, but he's pretty strong in a format with as little card drawing as the current Zen. Plus, once online, each time he hits and your opponent discards, you get a 4 point life swing as well. To heavily considered in the control deck.
* Vampire Nighthawk [1BB][Aggro/Control]: Nighthawk has so much going for him. A 3 Toughness rump that really matters in the current metagame. Lifegain to keep you at the table. Deathtouch for removing fatties well above his punching weight. Likely an auto-include.
* Vampire Nocturnus [1BBB][Aggro]: A much more situtional card, heavily dependent on the number of Vampires we run. Unlikely as an include, but a good consideration.

RED

* Golbin Guide [R][Aggro]: He'll be great in aggro, especially considering we'll run him along side Vampire Lacerator and Blightning, thus making up for the card advantage we lose having him in the red zone.
* Hellspark Elemental [1R][Aggro/Control]: He's a great dude that sees a fair amount of play. Important to consider him in the Control deck as with sweepers in your deck he can quickly come back from the grave to get another counter on BA.

BLUE

* Hedron Crab [Control]: Probably unlikely to see play maindeck, but a sideboard option.

MULTICOLOURED

* Esper Stormblade [W/B U][Aggro]: 3/2 flyers for 2 mana are pretty insane. Will come down to (a) our ability to turn him on and (b) whether we play Blue maindeck.
* Grixis Grimblade [u/R B][Aggro]: An interesting choice, but one we probably won't play.
* Jund Hackblade [B/G R][Aggro]: Again interesting, but not good enough.
* Shambling Remains [1BR][Aggro]: This guy seems very suited for an Aggro deck. You don't care about his inability to block, and he'll possibly die while your 2/2s that still matter get through. His unearth ability is quite important as well.
* Anathemancer [1BR][Control]: Dome your opponent without even swinging? Perfect for control.
* Kederekt Creepr [UBR][Control]: Probably too slow for aggro, an interesting choice for control. You opponent gets a horrible decision - card disavantage or an other counter on BA.
* Sedraxis Specter [UBR][Control]: Hypnotic Specter on crack. We'll consider him. Unearth, again, is important.
* Lightning Reaver [3BR][Control]: Unlikely to play, but he's out there.

DIRECT BURN

* Lightning Bolt [R][Aggro/Control]: The best burn spell ever, an auto-include.
* Burst Lightning [R][Aggro/Contro]: Does exactly what we want, two or four damage to the dome.
* Punishing Fire [1R][Control]: Without some sort of combo, Punishing Fire is probably to slow and low for use in the deck.

REMOVAL

* Disfigure [B][Aggro/Control]: A great removal spell, but probably second place over burn.
* Doom Blade [1B][Aggro/Control]: Again, does the job admirably, but probably comes in second place to Terminate.
* Terminate [BR][Aggro/Control]: Other than Path to Exile, the premier removal spell in Standard. A definite sideboard card, may be needed maindeck depending on the metagame.
* Hideous End [1BB][Control]: A card made for working with BA. The right colour, instant removal, and helps get a counter on BA. Definitely going in.
* Agony Warp [UB][Control]: Great for two-for-one-ing your opponent, may have a place in the deck.
* Bituminous Blast [3BR][Control]: Card advantage and removal all in one. However, does not place nice with Earthquake.
* Earthquake [XR][Control]: Would be ordinary, except it also hits your opponent. This makes it as a premier sweeper in a control deck.

OTHER SPELLS

* Duress [B][Control]: Excellent control card, removing any threats against BA.
* Countersquall [UB][Control]: For BA, a straight-up upgrade of Negate, with a bonus counter for BA.
* Grixis Charm [UBR][Aggro]: A possible include, depending on how deep into blue and aggro buld goes.
* Blightning [1BR][Aggro/Control]: An excellent card for both card advantage and getting another counter on BA.
* Mindbreak Trap [2UU][Control]: Probably a sideboard card in a blue build.
* Archive Trap [3UU][Control]: A win condition with a fully loaded BA, a dead card without it. One to consider.
* Trapmaker's Snare [1U]: For fetching traps, if we run them.
* Sign in BLood [BB][Control]: One of the best card-drawing cards in the set. An auto-include in a control build.
* Volcanic Fallout [1RR][Control]: A decent sideboard deck against Vampires and Boros, not so much against anything else nowadays.

PLANESWALKERS

* Lilliana Vess [3BB][Control]: Tutors up a BA, or the card you need to control the board. To be heavily considered. Plus, once BA is online, her +1 ability is posively brutal.
* Sorin Markov [3BBB][Control] His +2 ability is perfect with BA, as is his -3 ability. Mana cost is a little excessive, but his ultimate is brutal. A worthy consideration.

All things considered, I'm going to go with a Control build with BA. The build is almost a game of 'death by a thousand cuts'. You want everything your opponent does to hurt. Play a creature? Have it hideous-ended, lose two life. Play a non-creature? Have it Countersqualled, lose two life. Play multiple creatures? Have them Earthquaked, lose two or more life.

Here's the build I'm considering:

[1 Mana Spells]

4 x Bloodchief Ascension
4 x Lightning Bolt
2 x Burst Lightning

[2 Mana Spells]

4 x Bloodghast
4 x Countersquall
2 x Sign in Blood

[3 Mana Spells]

4 x Blightning
4 x Hideous End
4 x Vampire Nighthawk

[5 Mana Spells]

2 x Liliana Vess

[X Spells]

4 x Earthquake

[22 Lands]

The deck has a lot of powerful synergies.

Firstly, between Liliana and Bloodghast, it has plenty of card-drawing and tutoring. This gives it a big lead over many of the current decks in Standard that fall quickly into top-deck mode. This also helps assure your capacity to find Bloodchief Ascension.

Secondly, almost every card is capable of turning on the Bloodchief Ascension, including Sign in Blood. In theory, even without BA, you are quite capable of winning, as your ability to win any attrition war against your opponent is pretty high.

Thirdly, there is high-quality interaction between Earthquake and your two creatures, Vampire Nighthawk and Bloodghast. Bloodghast doesn't mind dying to Earthquake, and Vampire Nighthawk isn't touched by it. Earthquake is also very good at killing off opposing Planeswalkers.

Fourthly, Vampire Nighthawk is very good at both maintining life disparity with your opponent, as well as fending off any attack against Liliana. Mind you, Liliana is probably pretty vulnerable in this deck.

If I can round up the cards I'll try playtesting it and see how it goes. Again any and every piece of feedback is welcome.

Labels: analysis, deckbuilding, magic

Building a Digital Card Collection on MtGO

I was recently (today!) asked on Twitter various questions about MtGO. These included questions around trading, safety, pricing, boosters, singles, etc.
So firstly some upfront links. Read 'em, then come back here:

* Official WoTC MtGO page
* Wikipedia page on Magic Online
* LSV: Going Infinite on MTGO
* Historical article by Ben Bleiweiss: The Current Economic State of Magic Online
* Jeroen Aga: Going Infinite drafting on Magic Online... A Myth?

About my Digital Habits

No, I’m talking about picking my nose. Before I begin, I think I should disclose how I play MtGO before I recommend you do anything. Here's a snapshot of me as a digital player:

* I have a high level of disposable income, some of which I budget for MtGO
* I invest far more in paper Magic than MtGO.
* I live at least half-an-hour away from the nearest store that runs events.
* I buy a draft set and six tickets at the beginning of the week and see how far I can get without buying more
* I am slowly investing in the cards needed to play constructed but don't currently play in the constructed queues
* I redeem often. Most of my paper cards are through redemption. This is largely the reason why I don't play a lot of constructed online.
* I don’t care for foil cards, either online or off.
* My online collection is small but tactical.
* I have only recently attempted to trade for profit.

With that in mind, here's my advice regarding MtGO.

The ‘Players’ Involved

The following is a lazy snapshot of the ‘players’ involved in the MtGO community:

* The casual players – these are the people who make up the vast bulk of the MtGO community. They spend a lot of time in the casual room or tournament practice room, but not necessarily in the queues.
* The hard-core players – these are people who aim for the prize payouts in constructed and limited events online. They generally attempt to make a profit off MtGO through prize support.
* The traders & bot owners –these are the people who attempt to make a profit through trading cards
* The bots – these are the machines who make the healthy trading community possible, essentially automated scripts that allow a human to trade cards and tickets with a machine.
* The ORCs – These are WoTC employed staff that monitor the chat rooms and provide support online.

Currency

The major currency of Magic Online are Event Tickets. Event tickets are sold by WoTC as digital objects in lieu of trading money online. In essence, US$1 = 1 Ticket, although it doesn’t always work out that way. Depending on the number of Nix Tix events (where no tickets are used), Nix Pax events (where ONLY tickets are used, not product) and current prize payouts, you can ‘buy’ Event Tickets through the bots for less than US$1, often through paypal websites. Event Tickets has shrunk as low as .89, but are usually around the mid-to-high .90s.
New booster packs generally cost US$3.99, or 4 tickets, from a bot. As boosters go out of the store, their cost in the bots grows. Often the bots sell boosters available in the store for less than 4 tickets, as they have bought them off players who have won events, not the store itself. The rare exception to this was M10 product, which clung onto the 4 ticket value due to the expected Earned Value from every M10 packet.
Cards themselves have a broad range of value. However, the commonly acknowledged pricing structure for normal-value, non-foil commons, uncommons and rares is as follows:

* Commons :: .02 - .05 tickets
* Uncommons :: .08 -.20 tickets
* Rares :: .25 to 1 tickets

Once a card is a ‘chase’ card online, the price will spike significantly. For example:

* Gush, a common, has only been issued in the “Jace vs Chandra’ Duel Set and goes for 3 tickets
* Daze, a common, has only been issued in the “Jace vs. Chandra’ Duel Set and goes for 9 tickets
* Spell Snare, an uncommon, goes for .40 of a ticket
* Bloodbraid Elf, an uncommon, goes for 2 tickets
* Mana Drain, a rare, has only been issued in Masters Edition 3 and goes for 15 tickets
* Force of Will, a rare, has only been issued in Masters Edition and goes for 64 tickets

Many of the bots use a credit system; if you only spend .43 of a ticket, the other .57 will be reserved against your account name for future purchases. As many of the bots are tied together, you may find your credits extend across multiple bots; this is a secondary currency market within MtGO. Some bots have various promotions they use that allow for discounts over time, like frequent flyer miles. I suggest doing a lot of research into the bots if you want to get the most out of them.

Starting a Collection

Firstly, begin with the end in mind. What format do you intend on playing in? On MtGO there are four major constructed formats; Classic, Extended, Standard and Pauper. I would rate the cost of these in the following order, from most expensive to cheapest:

Classic > Standard > Extended > Pauper

Here are some recommendations for building a collection within a format:

* If you intend on playing in the constructed queues for profit, build a Pauper deck first. It requires the least dollar investment to create a great Pauper deck, you can learn how to play in-game properly, and if you hate MtGO you can get out with as little loss as possible. A great primer for creating and pricing a pauper deck can be found here at puremtgo.com.
* Drafting will build a collection, but it will cost you an absolute fortune. Unless you have a 1900+ rating and know what the hell you’re doing, don’t do it.
* Understand what is redeemable and what is not. That Standard deck you just built? Redeemable for the next four years. That Classic deck with the Tropical Islands and Flooded Strands? You’ll never be able to redeem it. If you don’t care about redemption, the ‘perennial’ cards, such as Birds of Paradise, have high variance in price depending on the set. Cards from old sets that are not redeemable, but still being printed in new sets, are generally cheaper than newer editions (but not always).
* Thanks to the wonders of having digital cards, you don’t need more than four of any card. Ever. No matter how many decks you use that card in, or how many formats that card exists in. If you have anything over four of a certain card, unless you’re holding back and waiting for a spike rise, you may as well trade the excess away.
* Build in the off-season of the equivalent paper magic tournaments. Many paper players will build equivalent decks online, thus forcing the prices of tickets up at that time. The recent Dark Depths increase is an excellent example of this – a single Extended Pro-Tour drove the price up from 2 tickets to 15 tickets.
* Understand the bots are not your friends. They are there to make money. They will try to rip you off if they have the chance. Be a smart shopper – compare prices, do searches online, search the classifieds page for the lowest price. I recommend doing a quick browse of Cardhoarder.com, Abugames.com, and, essentially, mtgolibrary.com, which has a wonderful search engine across the people that use its bot service to find card prices.
* There are some non-widely-known chat areas, such as the auction area. This can be accessed by typing /join auction or /join auction2. Players run their own auctions for bulk card lots in the chat. This is a highly cost-effective way of picking up cards.

With those recommendations in mind, once you’ve chosen a format you wish to build a collection for, here’s my advice:

* Concentrate on getting the mana base first. The mana base will likely be the most expensive part of any non-pauper deck you play, and as a result you may not realise the cost of the constructed deck until you get to buying the mana base at the end, and then your budget will be screwed or your deck won’t be competitive.
* Once you have your mana base, it’s wise to try to get the staple artifacts out of the way. I’d suggest the following artifacts are must-haves, depending on your intended format – Aether Vial, Pithing Needle, Chrome Mox, Engineered Explosives, Tormod’s Crypt, Umezawa’s Jitte, Relic of Progenitus, Chalice of the Void, Vedalken Shackles, Crucible of Worlds.
* Once you’ve got your land and your artifacts, it’s only a matter of pulling together a deck. I certainly can’t recommend a deck for you, but you can be assured the more popular the deck, the more popular it will be online. Sometimes the best thing you can do is build the deck that beats the popular deck and get rich off that. Metagaming is a time-honoured tradition, never more so than on MtGO.

Hopefully this should give you a good idea on how to get a collection started on MtGO. If you have any questions, feel free to hit me up on twitter, or find me in game – weirdly enough my handle in MtGO is wrongwaygoback. See you online.

Labels: analysis, mtgo

Thinking about Nothing

The new extended period is coming up and I believe it will be signified by one distinct feature; the significant number of manaless casting cost spells in the format.

The popular ones include:

• Chrome Mox


• Chalice of the Void [for 0]


• Engineered Explosives [for 0]


• Dread Return


• Mindbreak Trap [new to the format]


• The PACT cycle [primarily Pact of Negation, Slaughter Pact, Summoner's Pact]


• STORMED copies [Grapeshot, Dragonstorm]


• CASCADED cards [Off Bloodbraid Elf, Enlisted Wurm, etc]


• SUSPENDED cards [mainly Hypergenesis combo, Ancestral Vision, Lotus Bloom]


• AFFINITY cards [Frogmite, Myr Enforcer, Spire Golem]

This pretty much covers every single deck in the metagame:

• Hypergenesis [Hypergenesis, Demonic Dread, Ardent Plea]


• UR Dragonstorm [Dragonstorm, Lotus Bloom, Pact of Negation]


• Tooth and Nail [Chalice of the Void, Chrome Mox]


• Tron [Chalice of the Void, Chrome Mox]


• Elves [Summoner's Pact]


• Kiki Gifts [Engineered Explosives, Chrome Mox, Chalice of the Void]


• Dredge [Chrome Mox, Dread Return]


• Faeries [Chrome Mox, Engineered Explosives, Ancestral Vision]


• Affinity [Frogmite, Myr Enforcer]

Now, I'm not sure how many spells a counterspell has to be able to hit before it's considered a great spell. Certainly Spell Snare, which can only hit 2 mana spells for U, is now considered a tournament staple. So I'm wondering how useful Nix will be in the new metagame, considering it's a Spell Snare that hits spells cast for 0 mana for a single U as well.

Perhaps it's likely a sideboard card only; something you bring in when you know your opponents is playing mana acceleration with Chrome Mox and Lotus Bloom (a two-for-one trade of Nix vs Chrome Mox + Removed Card seems good so early in the game). Or maybe you'll bring it in to counter your opponent's Mindbreak Traps in the storm mirror. Or to easily prevent Hypergenesis going off. Or protecting your tokens against Engineered Explosives, or protecting against Chalice of the Void.

The big argument will be "Why Nix instead of Chalice of the Void for 0?". I think Nix is going to be around more to protect your plays vs Chalice and Mindbreak Trap, rather than hinder your opponent by countering Moxen and Ancestral Vision. Chalice is an offensive card. Nix, like every counterspell, is defensive. Furthermore, Chalice for 0 will not stop Cascaded spells, Storm copies or Dredge Return; Nix does.

If the new extended does feature a glut of cards abusing a zero-mana-cost environment, then perhaps Nix will be seen as the new Spell Snare. Perhaps it's worth picking up a playset right now before people rediscover this little counterspell.

--***--

BONUS NEW EXTENDED CONTROL SKELETON

DECK NAME: "This Level Of Blue Is Higher Than Any Other Previous Level Of Blue"

MAIN

[Counterspell Suite]

4 x Nix
4 x Spell Snare
4 x Mana Leak
2 x Cryptic Command

[Draw Spells]

4 x Ancestral Vision

[Control Spells]

1 x Chalice of the Void
1 x Engineered Explosives
1 x Relic of Progenitus
1 x Trinket Mage
2 x Vedalken Shackles
2 x Venser, Shaper Savant

[Kill Conditions]

10 x Kill Conditions

[Lands]

4 x Man Lands
20 x Other Lands

SIDEBOARD

3 x Mindbreak Trap
3 x Circle Of Protection: Red
3 x Trickbind
3 x Threads of Disloyalty
3 x Ancient Grudge

Labels: analysis, magic

I've been doing a LOT of ARB-ARB-ARB and BETA-BETA-BETA drafting on MtGO, and have come across a great, totally asymmetrical drafting strategy around these cards.

The centerpiece card of the strategy is Mind Funeral:

--
Mind Funeral 1UB
Sorcery (U)
Target opponent reveals cards from the top of his or her library until four land cards are revealed. That player puts all cards revealed this way into his or her graveyard.
--

In limited this card is a powerhouse. You essentially need to hit your opponent with a Mind Funeral three times and that's game. At 1UB this can be easily done. However, due to the speed of some opponent's decks, there are a bunch of cards that can help you buy the time - or find Mind Funeral - to get that strategy across the line.

I've seen a great deal of drafts where the Mind Funerals get picked 10th-13th. If you see this happening, snatch them up. Even getting off a single Mind Funeral and watching your opponent mill away their bombs is always heartening.

In order of drafting perference, if you're going to go down the mill strategy, these are the cards I would go for:

If staying within Esper:

Mind Funeral: As the core of the strategy, you really need three of these, unless you have cards (such as Reborn Hope) that can return a Mind Funeral back to your hand.
Nemesis of Reason (+ Finest Hour): An excellent 5 drop for the mill strategy, it becomes absolutely insane if you splash green for Finest Hour, in which case you hit for a 20 mill advantage.
Wall of Denial: The best delaying card in the format. Almost nothing can touch it. They either have to sneak past with unblockable or fear, or get enough dudes in play to get around it.
Slave of Bolas: One of the best pieces of removal in the format, it's a great top pick.
Kathari Remnant: Another great "wall", with the added benefit of cascading into Mind Funeral.
Deny Reality: Cascading into Mind Funeral is great, especially while your delaying their attack.
Mistvein Borderpost: Mana fixer de jour.
Fieldmist Borderpost: The other Esper fixer.
Ethersworn Shieldmage : A great card for slowing down your opponent, and on the odd occassion acting as removal as well. Perfect against a Grixis Grimblade.
Bant Sureblade: The best defensive 2 drop in the set.
Esper Stormblade: Excellent 2 drop.

If splashing Green:

Reborn Hope: Your fourth, fifth or sixth Mind Funeral.
Lord of Extinction: I attacked with a 37/37 Lord of Extinction today off the back of a couple of Mind Funerals. The two just love each other.
Maelstrom Pulse: The best removal in the format, so why not pick it?
Winged Coatl: I've seen games stall a long time just from this little guy. Well worth grabbing.
Lorescale Coatl: If you're splashing green, he's great to have in order to find your Mind Funeral.
Behemoth Sledge: Buys you the lifegain you need to stick around. Also wins games by itself.
Qasali Pridemage: Great artifact removal, and can act as a beater if need be.

The great thing about drafting the mill strategy is that most opponents don't expect it (yet). The reaction from your opponent when you slam down a Mind Funeral one turn, and a Lord of Extinction or Nemesis of Reason the next is fantastic. If you know your playgroup is avoiding the core Esper cards for the strategy, I recommend you give it a try, and while your opponent tries to figure out how to bring your life from 20 to 0, you play an asymmetrical game where every land they play brings them close to losing.

Labels: analysis, Esper, magic, milling

Evaluating Alara Reborn... for Pauper.


Some thoughts on the new Reborn cards and how they may affect the Pauper metagame.

For reference, all cards are on the Magic Salvation Spoiler list.

Before I start, some things to note about the pauper format. Due to the lack of quality sweepers in Pauper, creatures currently rule the metagame. Often it's about who can land the most the fastest. The exception to that rule is Mono-Black Control, which has access to the best sweeper in the format, Crypt Rats.

So on to the analysis.

*------*

Borderpost Cycle: Quality mana fixing is precious in Pauper. The Borderpost Cycle may see a lot of action as extra Terramorphs, but I'm not sure if they're better than the Ravnica bounce lands, which didn't delay mana progression. May find some use in affinity. Wait and see.

Blade Cycle (Esper Stormblade, Grixis Grimblade, Jund Hackblade, Naya Hushblade, Bant Sureblade): I think this cycle will really warp the format. Note that you can play two colours and have access to three of the blades with no problems. I can absolutely see a pauper "blade" deck as a viable archtype. I can also see them slipping into other decks (such as mimic decks and RG aggro) with no problem at all. A fanastic group of cards.

Landcycling Critter Cycle (Sanctum Plowbeast, Jhessian Zombies, Igneous Pouncer, Valley Rannet, Pale Recluse) Great mana fixers for limited that may see play in Pauper as such, but probably too slow and too mana costly when played as a creature to see action.

Ethercaste Knight: Exalted is a valid pauper archtype, and Ethercaste adds a lot to the build. The fact that he's a Artifact Creature, however, means there's a lot more hate out for him than usual. However, he is immune to Terror, and as Mono-Black Control rules Pauper at the moment, he may find some play.

Ethersworn Shieldmage: The perfect foil to Crypt Rats, this guy is sure to see play as your opponent Wraths his team and your guys stick around.

Glassdust Hulk: Cycling is cute, but essentially won't see play.

Offering to Asha: With all the great counterspells in Pauper (for instance... Counterspell!) the tacked on lifegain isn't worth the extra mana cost.

Stormcaller's Boon: The cascade is cute, but the effect isn't worthwhile and you're esentially not gaining card advantage due to the neccessity to sac. So probably won't see play.

Talon Trooper: A 2/3 flyer is nice, but not a game changer.

Architects of Will: Another cute effect, and may see play in a Blink type deck, where you give your opponent land after land after land and deny them anything else. Perhaps someone could build a deck around this guy and ninjas.

Deny Reality: An excellent piece of removal that has cascade. Pity about the sorcery speed.

Etherium Abomination: Unearth really got an improvement with the recent MtGO printing of Tortured Existence. I could happily see this in a Tortured Existence deck, treated like discard fodder into a 4 dmg burn spell for 3, alongside Brackwater Elemental.

Soul Manipulation: The best pauper card out of Reborn so far. This thing will see all sorts of play. Mono Black Control might even branch into blue just to have access to this.

Vedalken Ghoul: I'm not sure how to assess this. Surely it'll either just be killed by an instant, or hit for 1 a few times. Watch, wait and see.

Breath of Malfegor: Won't see play.

Demonic Dread: A three mana sorcery? With cascade? At common?? An instant add to a blightning deck along with Terminate. Could warp the format to BR significantly.

Sanity Gnawers: The random discard is cute, but Pauper already has access to a large amount of quality discard. May see play, but the R cost makes it less attractive to the decks that would use it.

Singe-Mind Ogre: Kinda nice, especially against Mono-Black Control, which sports a number of large critters. A possible sideboard card for RB against Mono-Black.

Terminate: Probably the most game-changing card from the set. Will be played in any deck that can run it. Expect RB Blighting to become a viable archtype now.

Colossal Might: It's okay. May see play.

Deadshot Minotaur: Won't see play.

Godtracker of Jund: Won't see play.

Gorger Wurm: Won't see play.

Rhox Brute: Won't see play.

Violent Outburst: A great card, instant, has card advantage, and suits token decks to a tee. Will get a lot of action.

Captured Sunlight: Interesting but probably uneccessary.

Grizzled Leotau: Will see play if someone finds the need for a GW control deck... maybe a sideboard card for Slivers?

Leonin Armorguard: Crunchy. Will probably get trialed then dropped.

Qasali Pridemage: Fantastic card. Will see play as a sideboard card against anything packing important artifacts or enchantments.

Sigil of the Nayan Gods: Meh. Won't see play.

Sigiled Behemoth: Won't see play.

Vectis Dominator: Won't see play.

Magefire Wings: Won't see play.

Putrid Leech: Okay, an interesting card. Could see some play, but I can't think of where or why.

Cerodon Yearling : RW just got a major boost with this card. Will see a stack of play in any deck that can support him.

Winged Coatl: Simicbogle was just waiting for this card as another piece of quality removal to play longside Snakeform. Fanastic, will get lots of play.

Esper Sojourners: Will see play, if Pauper can get manafixing to work faster and better.

Grixis Sojourners: Meh, won't see play.

Jund Sojourners: It's... okay. Just. Unlikely to see play.

Naya Sojourners: Nope, won't see play.

Bant Sojourners: Michael J Flores likes it, so someone's bound to use it.

Arsenal Thresher: This guy is a bomb, and will certainly get some action. Can easily see it dropping as a 6/6, which is extremely hard to kill in pauper.

Sewn-Eye Drake: I don't think it gets there. Good, but not good enough.

Sangrite Backlash: Won't see play.

Trace of Abundance: Wow. I really, really like this card. It's the quality mana fixing GR and GW were looking for. I think it's see a lot of play.

Crystallization: Meh. Won't see play.

Messenger Falcons: A solid card, and as card drawing partly defines the pauper format I think it could find a home in Blink decks quite happily, landing a turn before Mulldrifter.

*------*

Overall, I think Blue and Red are the big winners out of this set. The only problem will be that pauper has very little quality manafixing in the way of lands, so Gold cards haven't seen a lot of action. However, with all the buzz about I'm sure that will change.

Labels: analysis, magic, pauper

So by now you've seen the following card:


--
Sen Triplets 2WUB

Legendary Artifact Creature - Human Wizard

At the beginning of your upkeep, choose target opponent. This turn, that player can’t play spells or activated abilities and plays with his or her hand revealed. You can play cards from that player’s hand this turn.

3/3
--


It is, for me, the card that generates the most interest in Alara Reborn. Originally I thought of it as "part Meddling Mage, part Mindslaver", but now I think of it more as "part Silence, part Muse Vessel". Either way, three of those four cards have seen competitive play, and the other (Silence) certainly will once released in M10.

I've been rolling around in my head the idea of Five Colour Creature Control, based on manabase of Exotic Orchard, Ancient Ziggurat and Reflecting Pool. I've also been considering a bunch of cards I think may interact well with Sen Triplets.

My idea of control deck based around Sen Triplets does two things; (1) Slow the game through hand Disruption, and (2) Bounce permanents at instant speed.

So following are some ideas for cards in standard for Five Colour Creature Control.

*--------*

Sen's Five Colour Creature Control:

1 Mana

Cursecatcher: Remember how great this little guy used to be? Well, he's still aweseome.

2 Mana

Meddling Mage: He's a beat and you know it. Excellent in-colour control.

3 Mana

Plumeveil: Excellent card for protecting Sen Triplets.
Vendilion Clique: Hand disruption and allows you to determine if it's time to play Sen Triplets.
Sedraxis Alchemist: A critter plus a bounce effect is great in this deck, and you'll usually have a blue critter around to help him.
Cephalid Constable: I would like to put a Mask of Riddles on this guy sometime.
Wall of Denial: The control player's wall of choice. 0/8 with shroud? Utterly fantastic for control.

4 Mana

Surgespanner: He's a bounce card. Imagine using him to attack, bouncing your oppoent's critter, then playing that critter yourself. Sweet.
Wall of Reverence: A big, fat wall that lets you survive for a while... and recover from the burn you've taken
Sower of Temptation: Still a great creature based control card.
Glen Elendra Archmage: Perhaps the best card to play before playing Sen Triplets.

5 Mana

Mulldrifter: Card drawing will be a requirement for this deck.
Shriekmaw: Still great removal at either cost.
Maelstrom Angel: Why aren't we seeing this guy in play yet? He can drop Sen Triplets and leave mana up for protecting it.

6 Mana

Broodmate Dragon: Because sometimes you just have to bash face.

*--------*

Alternatively, Sen's Artifact Control:

1 Mana

Pithing Needle: A great control card. With so many activated abilities and planeswalkers around may be worth maindecking.

2 Mana

Tidehollow Sculler: The poor man's Meddling Mage? He generates card advantage and hand disruption.
Ethersworn Canonist: Slow your opponent down while you get Sen Triplets into play.
Time Sieve: I've dropped this in here based on the idea of also using Sharding Sphynx. If it goes off once with Sen Triplets in play, you can basically strip your opponent's hand away - into your play area.
Etherium Sculptor: To get Sen Triplets and your creatures out earlier.
Tidehollow Strix: An excellent control card, albeit fragile.
Mask of Riddles: An excellent draw engine, probably too slow for the format.
Sceptre of Fugue: Probably goes against the grain of using Sen Triplets in the first place.

3 Mana

Master of Etherium: With a artifact base he's probably not a bad bet.

4 Mana

Sanctum Gargoyle: Can recur your various control elements - but is it too slow?

5 Mana

Sphynx Summoner: Tezzeret's fetch ability but at a slower rate. But the 3/3 flyer is nothing to sneeze at.
Ethersworn Adjudicator: Perhaps as a 1 of?
Reveilark: I've included this because it has such crazy interaction with Sanctum Gargoyle.
Tezzeret the Seeker: A great control card, able to fetch various control elements.

6 Mana

Sharding Sphynx: Included for consideration with Time Sieve.

*--------*

And of course you'll need utility cards:

Unsummon: Perhaps the creature removal of choice, especially later in the game as you'll get to play the cards you bounce. Also allows you to protect Sen Triplets.
*Silence: Once it rotates into Standard, the immediate 1 mana instant of choice.

Thoughtseize: Still a great threat removal card.
Ponder: Still a great card for setting up your next few turns and finding that Sen Triplets.

Boomerang: Probably the best quality removal and pseudo land destruction. You bounce their land then play it with Sen. What kind of nutty land destruction is that?

Esper Charm: Great card drawing.

Savour The Moment: Not having an upkeep step may be handily mitigated by getting to play your opponent's lands.

Jase Beleren: You get a card, they get a card... for you to play.

Cryptic Command: You're playing blue, so you'll be need this card, right?

Maelstrom Nexus: Imagine having both Maelstrom Nexus, Maelstrom Angel and Sen Triplets in play, then cascading off your opponent's cards that you just played for free. It'll never happen but feel free to LIVE THAT DREAM!

*--------*

Ultimately I think some mix of the above cards will used in a strict control style, perhaps as follows:


4 x Tidehollow Sculler
4 x Meddling Mage
4 x Vendilion Clique
3 x Sen Triplets

2 x Jase Beleren

4 x Silence
4 x Unsummon
4 x Boomerang
4 x Esper Charm
4 x Cryptic Command

Labels: analysis, ideas, magic, Sen Triplets, standard

Sometimes you draft what you think is a great deck.. and then it just doesn’t get there. Here’s what I drafted tonight.

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Here’s the deck:

2 Brackwater Elemental
3 Plains
1 Kederekt Leviathan
1 Manaforce Mace
1 Courier's Capsule
1 Seaside Citadel
1 Esperzoa
1 Frontline Sage
6 Swamp
1 Windwright Mage
2 Tidehollow Strix
1 Parasitic Strix
2 Agony Warp
1 Cloudheath Drake
1 Faerie Mechanist
1 Skeletal Kathari
1 Kathari Screecher
1 Inkwell Leviathan
1 Oblivion Ring
1 Obelisk of Alara
7 Island
1 Salvage Titan
1 Executioner's Capsule
1 Armillary Sphere

Match 1: Game 1: He’s playing Bant with some Esper flyers. He nails me fairly quickly in Game 1 when he lays a turn 3 Pancake Flipper and some exalted dudes and I can make no profitable trades.
Game 2: We trade for a bit. He makes a great play using unsummon to save one of his critters from Agony Warp, but eventually I take over the board with Inkwell Leviathan and Kederekt Leviathan.
Game 3: He comes out swinging. He uses Fatestitcher to great effect. I don’t even get a chance to play much that doesn’t either die quick or get turned on it’s side.

Although I didn’t win the game, I think I drafted pretty well. I had a good amount of playable cards, some obvious bombs, and an excellent set of removal. However, sometimes you just don’t get there.

Tomorrow’s another day.

Labels: analysis, draft, Esper, mtgo